Five things to look for in Iowa on Tuesday night (and not one of them is turnout)

There's far too much talk about turnout on election days, largely because there's little else to talk about until the results come in. Most of the discussion on TV is sound and fury, signifying nothing. The total number of voters who show up to the caucuses is far less meaningful to the campaigns than the makeup of electorate--which particular voters show up to cast a vote.

To help fill some of the airspace between now and then, here's a guide to interpreting tonight's results from Iowa as they're coming in:

1. Geography. First, pay attention to the big population centers. That's where the votes are. Polk County, home to Des Moines, was responsible for nearly 20 percent of the Republican vote in 2008, and Mike Huckabee won it by a substantial margin. If Romney is significantly besting the 23 percent he received in Polk County four years ago, that will bode well for his evening. He likely needs to do the same in neighboring suburban Dallas County.

Sioux County has the greatest concentration of Republican voters in the state. Watching the returns come in from this county in the northwest corner of the state can provide offer a clue to just how split or unified social conservatives may prove to be. The Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann campaigns will be looking here first to see if Rick Santorum was able to coalesce his support in the final 72 hours of the campaign.

Romney owned the eastern portion of the state in 2008, including populous Linn County (Cedar Rapids), Scott County (Davenport), and Dubuque County. About 47 percent of the overall electorate came from eastern Iowa in 2008. Watch to see if he can increase his support beyond what it was four years ago in these areas, which served as the core of his Iowa base. Dubuque is heavily Catholic and may be particularly interesting to watch now that the Catholic candidate in the race, Rick Santorum, is finishing strong.

2.Demography. In 2008, 60 percent of the Republican caucusgoing electorate described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, and Mike Huckabee's ability to win 46 percent of those voters propelled him to victory. The Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum campaigns are hoping that evangelical Christians will make up a similar proportion of the overall electorate tonight, too.  If these voters account for significantly less than 60 percent of the electorate tonight, the Romney campaign is likely to see that as a very hopeful sign.

The two additional demographic indicators of most interest to the campaigns tonight are age and party identification. One overlooked statistic from 2008 is that Mike Huckabee trounced Ron Paul and Romney among younger voters. Paul and Romney drew an equal level of support from voters between the ages of 17 and 29 four years ago. (If you're 17 but will turn 18 before Election Day in November, you can participate in the Iowa caucuses.) These caucusgoers, however, made up only 11 percent of the electorate. If the Paul revolution is to win its first caucus or primary on Tuesday night, the campaign will need to increase participation among 17- to 29-year-old voters.

Also, many self-identifying independent voters tend to participate in the caucuses; they can change their party affiliation and register as Republicans just before they vote. In 2008, 13 percent of the Republican caucus electorate identified as independents. Ron Paul won nearly a third of these voters. With John McCain no longer in the field, the Paul campaign is looking to take a much larger share of their votes this time.

3. Electability: There's always a lot of chatter in the news media about the importance of electability, voters' desire to nominate someone who can win in the general election next November. But electability rarely proves to be a huge factor in how people vote.

In 2008, only 7 percent of the Republican caucusgoers cited electability as the quality that mattered most to them in deciding whom to support. Romney won an overwhelming 51 percent of these voters, but there were too few of them to make a real difference in the outcome.

Santorum and Romney have been making electability a part of their closing pitches on the trail this week. Perhaps the strong desire among Republicans to oust President Obama from office will spark an uptick in the number of these voters.

4. Message: You won't want to miss the candidates' speeches tonight after the results. A caucus victory creates a huge national spotlight for the winner, who tries to begin sounding like an eventual nominee (see: Obama, Barack 2008).

But listen carefully to what the other candidates say, too. If Newt Gingrich places fourth or fifth, will we hear a newly formed message tonight about how he plans to aggressively attack Romney going forward? Will Michele Bachmann say anything to indicate that she may be rethinking her plan to stay in the contest? The most nimble candidates and campaigns will hint at adjustments to come.

5. Narrative: The interpretation of Tuesday night's results from the collective political punditocracy is likely to have a greater impact on the race than the results themselves.  There are many story lines that could possibly emerge from tonight's results, but the larger overall narrative driving the race forward from Iowa will be either "Romney Takes A Big Step Toward The Nomination" or "Results Expose Significant Romney Hurdles."  Whichever emerges as the dominant theme will tell us a lot about whether we are in for a long, protracted contest or one that gets all but wrapped up in a few weeks.

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Continue Reading... Labels: Night, things, Tuesday, turnout)

'Dancing' Upset On First Night Of Season 13 Finals

No one could have predicted this.

(SPOILER: This story contains a recap of Night 1 of the "Dancing" finals.)

PLAY IT NOW: ‘Dancing’s’ Final 3: Are Ricki Lake & Derek Hough Confident They’ll Win The Mirrorball?

On Monday, during part 1 of the "Dancing with the Stars" finals, it was Rob Kardashian (who quietly had hung in the competition for Season 13 week after week) who landed - with professional partner Cheryl Burke - at the top of the leaderboard.

Supported by mom Kris Jenner, sisters Kim Kardashian (in a sparkling tuxedo suit), Khloe Kardashian and several additional members of the "Keeping Up with the Kardashians" clan, Rob and Cheryl rocketed to the top with two dances that earned the duo respect and big points from the judges.

VIEW THE PHOTOS: ‘Dancing With The Stars’ Season 13: Week 6 — Broadway

And surprisingly Ricki Lake and Derek Hough, as well as J.R. Martinez and Karina Smirnoff, who had battled it out for the top of the leaderboard all season long, ended the night in a tie for second.

Things started off well for Rob, who tried out his first waltz (with pointers from Bruno Tonioli) of the season. The number with Cheryl was a smooth set of moves that left Carrie Ann Inaba thinking he was, as Tom Bergeron put it, "Cinderfella."

"You're like the male version of Cinderella," she raved as the pair earned a whopping 27/30. "You made it to the ball."

VIEW THE PHOTOS: ‘Dancing’s’ Derek Hough

That score tied Rob and Cheryl with the pair of Ricki and Derek, who also earned 27 for their first round number -- a cha cha that impressed Kirstie Alley (who was seated next to her Season 12 partner Maksim Chmerkovskiy) and the judges.

But it trumped J.R. Martinez who, competing following last week's ankle injury, had a hard time in his first number out with Karina - a cha cha the judges said was off beat.

VIEW THE PHOTOS: ‘Dancing’ Contestant & Soap Star J.R. Martinez Over The Years

"Tonight your musicality was a bit off... you were dancing a head of the music," Carrie Ann said, despite the standing ovation for the army veteran and his pro, from the studio audience.

Round 2 was the freestyle, and although from the rehearsal footage it appeared Ricki had a hard time (at one point Derek was caught on camera telling the talk show host to, "Just shut your face!"), she and her partner came out strong - just not strong enough.

Their acrobatic moves, and a celebratory post-dance jump that saw Ricki whack Derek in the jaw, was rewarded with another 27 points, for a total of 54, not quite enough points to challenge Rob and Cheryl, who earned a perfect score in the freestyle round for a total fo 57/60.

Rob and Cheryl's dance -- to "Minnie the Moocher" -- was full of lifts, which had Bruno remark, "You peaked at the right time."

"To get a 10, you have to blow us away," Carrie Ann added. "Consider me blown."

Down several points from his competitors, it was up to J.R. to prove he was still a contender and he did with a Latin-flavored freestyle that was both exciting and hot.

Karina ripped off her skirt, J.R. found his rhythm and the two shook their moneymakers and engaged in some of the most acrobatic lifts and moves in "DWTS" history.

"Those were the sickest lifts I've ever seen," Carrie Ann raved, shaking her body as she danced through her critique.

Even Maksim, a supporter of J.R. (and Karina's former fiance) stood up and cheered the pair's heart stopping comeback, which ended right in front of his seat in the audience.

"Two things were revealed - Karina's body and your talent. Fantastic," Len Goodman said of their number, which like Rob's freestyle, also earned a perfect score.

On Tuesday, the pairs will have one more dance for a judges' score and a winner will be crowned.

"DWTS" airs at 9/8 C on ABC.

Copyright 2011 by NBC Universal, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Continue Reading... Labels: 'Dancing', Finals, First, Night, Season, Upset

Woman Claims She Heard Natalie Wood’s Cries for Help on Night Actress Died

ABC News’ Suzan Clarke and Sheila Marikar report:

Police have reopened the investigation into the drowning death of actress Natalie Wood, and a witness has now come forward to say she heard the actress screaming for help on the night she died.

Wood died Nov. 29, 1981 while she was boating with her husband, Robert Wagner, and actor Christopher Walken, off Catalina Island in California.

Even though the couple had reportedly argued that night, there was no determination of foul play following Wood’s death. The Los Angeles County coroner’s office said the actress could have slipped and fallen into the water while trying to secure a dinghy to the boat.

The official cause of death was determined to be accidental drowning, but because there has been little concrete information about the circumstances surrounding the events of that night, speculation has been rife and the case remains one of Hollywood’s longest-running mysteries.

But now California resident Marilyn Wayne, who was boating in the same area that night — approximately 40 yards away from the Splendour, the yacht upon which the actors were staying — said she heard a woman’s cries for help.

In a sworn statement to investigators, Wayne said she and her boyfriend, John Payne, were sleeping aboard a sailboat, the Capricorn, on Nov. 28, 1981. The window of the cabin was open.

“A woman’s voice, crying for help from drowning awakened John, and he awakened me. ‘Help me, someone please help me, I’m drowning’ we heard repeatedly. Alarmed, I called out to my son, who also heard the cries, and looked at his new digital watch: it was just minutes after 11:00 P.M.,” she said in her statement.

According to Wayne’s statement, Payne turned on the sailboat’s beam light and played it over the area while she went up onto the deck, though it was dark and damp and she says that she was unable to see anything.

“While listening to the cries, we called the harbor patrol but no one answered. Then we called the sheriff’s office in Avalon, 12 miles away, and whoever answered told us a helicopter would be sent, but it did not come. We heard loud music coming from somewhere, so thought there was a party on a nearby boat,” the statement said. “Then I heard a man’s voice, slurred, and in aggravated tone, say something to the effect of, “Oh, hold on, we’re coming to get you,” and not long after, the cries for help subsided, but we heard the cries for up to 15 minutes. We returned to bed, terribly disturbed.”

When she woke up the next morning, she says, she saw police at the boat located near the Capricorn, and learned that Wood, a passenger on that board, had drowned.

Wayne, a former stockbroker, said in the statement that she doesn’t believe the initial investigation was thorough enough, that police never interviewed her and that she received a threatening note cautioning her to keep quiet about what she knew.

“After all I’ve learned since my own direct experience with the death of Natalie, I am stunned that Robert Wagner has never been properly interrogated in regards to Natalie Wood’s death. In my opinion, Natalie Wood’s case is one of the top most botched cases of the 20th century, and I am still willing to offer my assistance should you finally realize that this case needs what every death case deserves: a full and proper investigation,” her statement said.

Wagner has never been charged, and police plan to reach out to him as part of the re-opened investigation, but they say he is not a suspect.

The “Hart to Hart” actor — who is now 81 — has always maintained that there was no foul play involved in his wife’s death.

Wagner and Wood had been married to each other twice, and reportedly had a volatile relationship.

Police have said media interest sparked the renewed interest in the case. A Vanity Fair/CBS’ “48 Hours” special about the case aired on Saturday.

The captain of the Splendour, Dennis Davern, said that he believes that Wagner is to blame for Woods’ death.

“Yes I would say so,” Davern said on NBC’s “Today” last week when he was asked if Wagner was responsible. He admitted that he may have been at fault as well, saying, “We didn’t take any steps to see if we could locate her. It was a matter of don’t look too hard, don’t turn on search light, don’t call anyone.”

Davern also said that he lied to officials in the initial police report. Corina declined to comment on whether Davern could face charges if that’s true.

Davern and Marti Rulli co-authored the 2009 book “Goodbye Natalie, Goodbye Splendour,” about the circumstances surrounding the actress’ death. He and Lana Wood, Natalie Wood’s sister, asked authorities to reopen the case last year.

Wood’s body was found floating in the water about a mile away from the yacht. According to police reports, she was found wearing a long nightgown, socks, and a down jacket. She had dozens of bruises on her body, according to the autopsy report, including injuries to her face and arms.

Wood appeared in more than 56 films, including “West Side Story” and notably as James Dean’s love interest in “Rebel Without a Cause.”

Wagner and Wood married in 1957, divorced about five years later and remarried in 1972.

Wagner and Walken, who was filming “Brainstorm” with Wood at the time, reportedly got into an alcohol-fueled argument prior to her death. Wood is believed to have gone into the master cabin bathroom while they were arguing, but as Wagner was going to bed, he noticed Wood wasn’t there.

Wood’s aversion to water was famous. She couldn’t swim and once said in a TV interview that her greatest fear was of dark seawater.

The investigation has the support of the Wagner family.

“Although no one in the Wagner family has heard from the L.A. County Sheriff’s department about this matter, they fully support the efforts of the L.A. County Sheriff’s Dept. and trust they will evaluate whether any new information relating to the death of Natalie Wood Wagner is valid, and that it comes from a credible source or sources other than those simply trying to profit from the 30-year anniversary of her tragic death,” Robert Wagner’s publicist Alan Nierob said in a statement.

Walken, who has hired an attorney, is not considered a suspect, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Continue Reading... Labels: Actress, Claims, Cries, Heard, Natalie, Night, Woman, Wood’s